Registered Data

[CT188]

[00212] Optimal control for a SIR epidemic model with limited quarantine

  • Session Date & Time : 5B (Aug.25, 10:40-12:20)
  • Type : Contributed Talk
  • Abstract : Social distance and total lock-downs are interventions that have been used to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 virus. However, these measures could be harmful to societies in terms of social and economic costs. Using optimal control tools and numerical computations we investigate the optimal strategies that minimize the impact of an epidemic, by studying the conditions for an optimal control of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model.
  • Classification : 92D30, 34H05, 49N90
  • Author(s) :
    • Rocio Celeste Balderrama (Departamento de Matematica-Universidad de Buenos Airesu)
    • Javier Peressutti (Universidad de Mar del Plata)
    • Juan Pablo Pinasco (Universidad de Buenos Aires-IMAS-CONICET)
    • Constanza Sanchez de la Vega (Universidad de Buenos Aires_IMAS_CONICET)
    • Federico Vazquez (Universidad de Buenos Aires-IC-CONICET)

[00395] What can be the potential risk of Mpox outbreak in the endemic country?: Non-Markovian stochastic modeling study

  • Session Date & Time : 5B (Aug.25, 10:40-12:20)
  • Type : Contributed Talk
  • Abstract : In 2022, the Mpox outbreak shocked the world, with a completely different pattern and scale compared to past incidences in non-endemic countries, more than 80,000 cases have been confirmed. In this talk, we present how we analyzed the risk of local spread using a non-Markovian stochastic model. Multiple factors, which are suspected to affect the early stage of the outbreak significantly, the contact tracing, self-report-related behavior of the primary case, and secondary infectees were examined.
  • Classification : 92D30, 60H30, 62M09
  • Author(s) :
    • Youngsuk Ko (Department of mathematics, Konkuk university)
    • Victoria May Mendoza (Institute of Mathematics, University of the Philippines Diliman)
    • Renier Mendoza (Institute of Mathematics, University of the Philippines Diliman)
    • Yubin Seo (Hallym University College of Medicine)
    • Jacob Lee (Hallym University College of Medicine)
    • Eunok Jung (Department of mathematics, Konkuk University)

[00944] Modelling of healthcare-acquired infection spread in regional healthcare systems

  • Session Date & Time : 5B (Aug.25, 10:40-12:20)
  • Type : Contributed Talk
  • Abstract : A network-compartmental model for simulation of healthcare-associated infection spread in healthcare systems is presented. The model accounts for transmission of the pathogen by inter-hospital patient transfers and colonized patients' readmission. Estimates for basic reproduction number per hospital-community pairs are calculated for multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae for selected German regions. Inter-hospital transfer network is created from anonymized German health-insurance datasets. By numerical simulations, we examine interventions to reduce spread of the pathogen within the healthcare network.
  • Classification : 92D30, 62P10
  • Author(s) :
    • Konrad Sakowski (Institute of Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, University of Warsaw)
    • Monika Joanna Piotrowska (Institute of Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, University of Warsaw)
    • Agata Lonc (Institute of Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, University of Warsaw)
    • Johannes Horn (Institute for Medical Epidemiology, Biometrics, and Informatics, Interdisciplinary Center for Health Sciences, Medical Faculty of the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale))
    • Rafael Mikolajczyk (Institute for Medical Epidemiology, Biometrics, and Informatics, Interdisciplinary Center for Health Sciences, Medical Faculty of the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale))
    • André Karch (Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster)
    • Paweł Brachaczek (University of Warsaw)
    • Mirjam Kretzschmar (University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University)

[01106] An alternative approach to generating the Covid-19 dynamics

  • Session Date & Time : 5B (Aug.25, 10:40-12:20)
  • Type : Contributed Talk
  • Abstract : The dynamics of the mysterious Covid-19 spread are interesting for further exploration and investigation. We propose a generating dynamic operator of cumulative case functions to recover all the dynamics of the SEIR model. This approach can also provide estimates of unrecorded cases based on the dynamics of the Covid-19 test, IFR, CFR, and recorded cases. This approach directly measures daily transmission indicators, which can be used effectively for day-to-day epidemic control.
  • Classification : 92D30, 92B05, 92D25
  • Author(s) :
    • Muhammad Fakhruddin (Bina Nusantara University)
    • Kamal Khairudin Sukandar (Institut Teknologi Bandung)
    • Andy Leonardo Louismono (Institut Teknologi Bandung)
    • Metra Volisa (Institut Teknologi Bandung)
    • Rudy Kusdiantara (Institut Teknologi Bandung)
    • Muhammad Fakhruddin (The Republic of Indonesia Defense University)
    • Nuning Nuraini (Institut Teknologi Bandung)
    • Edy Soewono (Institut Teknologi Bandung)

[01913] Mathematical modeling, analysis, and simulation of the Epidemic Dynamics with Stochastic Perturbations: A case study of COVID-19 in Bogotá

  • Session Date & Time : 5B (Aug.25, 10:40-12:20)
  • Type : Contributed Talk
  • Abstract : We study the basic reproduction number for the epidemic models with stochastic perturbations in transmission rates and social behavior to analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bogotá, Colombia. We also consider the effect of vaccination as a control measure. We present the stability conditions and illustrate the simulation results for the proposed model. Finally, we present a computational experiment and validate the model by performing statistical analysis for the actual data.
  • Classification : 92D30, 92BXX, 60H30
  • Author(s) :
    • Andres Rios-Gutierrez (Universidad Nacional de Colombia)
    • Andres Rincon-Prieto (Universidad Nacional de Colombia)
    • VISWANATHAN ARUNACHALAM (Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

[01967] Modelling coevolutionary dynamics in heterogeneous SI epidemiological systems across scales

  • Session Date & Time : 5C (Aug.25, 13:20-15:00)
  • Type : Contributed Talk
  • Abstract : We present a new structured compartmental epidemiological model for the coevolutionary dynamics between susceptible and infectious individuals. Specifically, continuous structuring variables capture interindividual variability in resistance to infection and viral load. The model comprises a system of integro-differential equations providing a Boltzmann-type kinetic description of corresponding stochastic particle dynamics. We discuss a formal derivation of this model from the underlying particle dynamics and present analytical and numerical results on the long-time behaviour of its solutions.
  • Classification : 92D30, 92D25
  • Author(s) :
    • Elisa Paparelli (Politecnico di Torino - Università degli Studi di Torino)
    • Tommaso Lorenzi (Politecnico di Torino)
    • Andrea Tosin (Politecnico di Torino)

[02063] Modeling Uncertainty and Optimizing Control in Philippines COVID-19 Vaccination

  • Session Date & Time : 5C (Aug.25, 13:20-15:00)
  • Type : Contributed Talk
  • Abstract : We developed a mathematical model considering vaccination in the country. We incorporated stochastic terms to capture uncertainty. Results show the importance of booster shots that increases the vaccine-induced immunity duration. We then consider the problem of distributing a limited vaccine supply over a time period considering that the country is divided into regions. Simulations showed that the strategy solved from our formulation is better at minimizing infections than a discussed alternative strategy.
  • Classification : 92D30, 37N25, 34F05, 49K15, 37H10
  • Author(s) :
    • Randy L. Caga-anan (MSU-Iligan Institute of Technology)
    • Jayrold P. Arcede (Caraga State University)
    • Joey Genevieve T. Martinez (MSU-Iligan Institute of Technology)

[02503] Modelling mosquito dynamics and novel malaria vector control interventions

  • Session Date & Time : 5C (Aug.25, 13:20-15:00)
  • Type : Contributed Talk
  • Abstract : We present mathematical and statistical models of mosquito behaviour and feeding cycle dynamics. We analytically derive estimates of vectorial capacity for malaria (the potential of the mosquito population to transmit malaria). We parameterise these models to data from semi-field and field studies and evaluate the impact of current and novel vector control interventions in reducing vectorial capacity. We connect these models to malaria transmission models in humans to investigate the impact of these interventions in reducing clinical malaria transmission.
  • Classification : 92D30, 92D45, 92D50, 92C60, Malaria modelling, mosquito behaviour
  • Author(s) :
    • Nakul Chitnis (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute)

[02517] Flocking Dynamics of Agents with Nonidentical Intrinsic Accelerations

  • Session Date & Time : 5C (Aug.25, 13:20-15:00)
  • Type : Contributed Talk
  • Abstract : Collective dynamics has attracted much attention over the past decades. It depicts a group of agents represents the identical dynamics under the interaction. There have been several papers proposed to study these. In this talk, we set up a flocking model where agents in a flock can have different intrinsic accelerations. We give some theoretical results to ensure the occurrence of flocking dynamics and some numerical simulations are provided to support these.
  • Classification : 92D50, 92D25, 34D05, 93D20
  • Author(s) :
    • Yu-Hao Liang (National University of Kaohsiung)

[01741] A cannibalistic natural enemy pest model with different harvesting strategies

  • Session Date & Time : 5C (Aug.25, 13:20-15:00)
  • Type : Contributed Talk
  • Abstract : In the present work, we discuss the dynamics of a cannibalistic predator-prey model in the presence of different harvesting schemes for the pest population and the provision of additional food to natural enemies. We present a detailed mathematical analysis and numerical evaluations to discuss the pest-free state, coexistence of species, stability, occurrence of different bifurcations, and the impact of additional food and harvesting schemes on the system's dynamics.
  • Classification : 92Dxx
  • Author(s) :
    • Jai Prakash Prakash Tripathi (Central University of Rajasthan, India)