Abstract : The mini-symposium covers diverse topics in population dynamics, from the control of insect populations, which are important disease vectors or agricultural pests, to disease spreading and their relationship with the individual immunological status in an ecological ambiance. Different approaches will be discussed in this context, combining techniques from control theory, asymptotic analysis, bifurcation theory, sensitivity analysis, and networks. The group committed to this mini-symposium is heterogeneous, coming from different institutions in North and South America, Europe, and Asia, and well-balanced between women and men researchers.
Organizer(s) : Claudia Pio Ferreira, Olga Vasilieva
[01291] Exploring the effects of the latent eggs on the efficacy of Wolbachia-carrying release technique
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Claudia Pio Ferreira (Unesp)
Abstract : I will present an ordinary differential system that takes into account the interaction of two populations of mosquito, infected and uninfected with wolbachia. Each population will be split in egg, latent egg, larva and adult stage, but for the infected population no transition to larvae coming through latent egg is possible. Therefore, we will explore the contribution of uninfected eggs coming from the latent stage to the efficacy of wolbachia-aedes release.
[01943] Mathematical models for practical application of the Sterile Insect Technique
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Yves Dumont (CIRAD - University of Pretoria)
Abstract : Sterile Insect Technique-SIT is an autocidal control method used against Pests and Vectors. While conceptually very simple, it can be difficult to set up in the field. That is why, it is sometimes successful, and sometimes not. We show that modeling, analysis and simulations can be helpful to limit the risk of failure in SIT feasability programs. We present some results obtained against Aedes albopictus and Bactrocera dorsalis in Réunion island, a French overseas department.
[01092] A generalized next generation method for the effective reproduction number
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Suani Tavares Rubim de Pinho (Universidade Federal da Bahia)
Daniel Cardoso Pereira Jorge (Universidade Estadual Paulista)
José Garcia Vivas Miranda (Universidade Federal da Bahia)
Roberto Fernandes Silva Andrade (Universidade Federal da Bahia)
Abstract : The effective reproduction number $R(t)$ plays a key role in the study of infectious diseases, indicating the current average number of new infections caused by an infected individual. In this work, we present a generalization of next generation method, leading to expressions of $R(t)$ and generation interval distributions, within and between model sub-compartments, provided by an arbitrary compartmental model and by incidence data. Ref: Jorge, DCP et al. (2022). R. Soc. Open Sci. 9, 220005.
[03871] Modelling human behavioural change during the outbreak of emerging infectious disease
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Ryosuke Omori (Hokkaido University)
Abstract : Disease dynamics like SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to describe by mathematical modelling. One of reasons is lack of knowledge of behavioral change due to the difficulty of measuring individual decision. To solve this problem, we defined index for the mobility avoidance in response to epidemic measured using accommodation reservation data and decision timing for behavioral change can be quantified. Using this index, we revealed general patterns in host behavioral change dynamics in response to SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.
00309 (2/4) : 1D @A601 [Chair: Claudia P. Ferreira]
[01440] Mathematical insights of chemical and Wolbachia-based mosquito control
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
OLGA VASILIEVA (Universidad del Valle)
Daiver Cardona-Salgado (Universidad Autonoma de Occidente)
Lilian Sofia Sepulveda-Salcedo (niversidad Autonoma de Occidente)
Abstract : Wolbachia is a symbiotic bacterium that can block virus replication in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the primary transmitters of different vector-borne diseases. This thwarts the virus transmission from mosquitoes to humans. In recent years, Wolbachia-based biocontrol of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes have been gradually replacing the traditional control interventions based on insecticide spraying. In this presentation, we assess the pros and cons of Wolbachia-based biocontrol through the mathematical modeling of the mosquito population dynamics.
[02743] ON THE ORIGIN OF COMPLEX DYNAMICS IN MULTI-STRAIN DENGUE MODELS
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Maira Aguiar (Basque Center for Applied Mathematics)
Abstract : Dengue fever epidemiological dynamics shows large fluctuations in disease incidence. Multi-strain models show complex dynamics and qualitatively a very good result when comparing empirical data and model simulations, however, the extent of biological mechanisms generating complex behavior in simple epidemiological models is still unexplored. In this talk, I will present a set of models motivated by dengue fever epidemiology and compare different dynamical behaviors originated when increasing complexity into the model framework.
[04155] Covid-19: Vaccination impact after lockdown lifting and its large fluctuations
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Nico Stollenwerk (BCAM, Bilbao, Pais Vasco)
Abstract : The initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in beginning 2020 with exponential growth
of infected and hospitalizations led to severe lockdown measures in many countries.
The subsequent lifting of the lockdowns prohibited new exponential growth,
but lead to large subcritical fluctuations, with power law characteristics
close to endemic thresholds, analysed for Basque Country data on a daily base
for actual management purposed. We extended the modelling framework sucessfully
into the vaccine introduction period.
[03501] Optimization of Vaccination strategies on a metropolitan area
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Lucas Machado Moschen (School of Applied Mathematics - FGV EMAp)
Maria Soledad Aronna (School of Applied Mathematics - FGV EMAp)
Abstract : We propose a model for vaccination in a network that models a typical metropolitan area. By employing tools of mathematical epidemiology and optimal control, we analyze the effectiveness of different allocation policies for distribution of vaccines and we search for optimal strategies.
00309 (3/4) : 1E @A601 [Chair: NONE - no section; talk 04326 is the same as 04328]
[04326] Population Dynamics in Biology and Medicine
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Sunmi Lee (Kyung Hee University )
Abstract : The rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide has highlighted the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Policies that limit gatherings and enforce social distancing help to mitigate the spread of the disease, but also negatively impact the economy. Consequently, policymakers face the dilemma of whether to slow the outbreak by imposing strict rules or reduce the economic burden. This paper presents a novel framework for designing intervention policies based on deep reinforcement learning. The social distancing policies used by the South Korean government and their effects on the national economy are surveyed and integrated into a newly designed multi-patch epidemic model. The mobility between each pair of 17 patches (South Korean regions) is reconstructed using official data. The proximity policy optimization algorithm is adopted to optimize the policy model. The reward function incorporates the outbreak and economic loss, with an additional control variable that helps policymakers to determine the desired equilibrium between disease outbreak and economic recession. Our results highlight region-specific social distancing interventions compromising the dilemma between epidemic costs and economic costs.
00309 (4/4) : 2C @A601 [Chair: Maria Soledad Aronna]
[04328] Population Dynamics in Biology and Medicine
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Sunmi Lee (Kyung Hee University )
Hyo Sun Lee (Kyung Hee University )
Abstract : The rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide has highlighted the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Policies that limit gatherings and enforce social distancing help to mitigate the spread of the disease, but also negatively impact the economy. Consequently, policymakers face the dilemma of whether to slow the outbreak by imposing strict rules or reduce the economic burden. This paper presents a novel framework for designing intervention policies based on deep reinforcement learning.
[01337] A mathematical model to melanoma growth with macrophages and immunotherapy
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Paulo F. A. Mancera (UNESP)
Jairo G Silva (IFMT)
Mostafa Adimy (Inria and UCBL 1, Lyon France)
Guilherme Rodrigues (UNESP)
Abstract : We present a new mathematical model based on ODE to describe the dynamics of melanoma under an immunotherapeutic treatment. The novelty of the proposed model is the inclusion of the tumor-associated macrophage (TAM) population, enabling the in silico analysis of its influence on the failure of this immunotherapy.
[02941] A Mathematical Perspective on Resilience and Sustainability in Climate and Biodiversity
Format : Talk at Waseda University
Author(s) :
Michel DE LARA (CERMICS - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech)
Abstract : In this talk, I will
* scan through the IPCC (climate) and IPBES (biodiversity) international bodies reports,
* address theoretical aspects: how can we formalize sustainability and resilience
with tools from control theory (including viability) and decision under uncertainty?
* present methods: how can we tackle problem solving, once mathematically formalized?
* outline examples: biodiversity (fisheries, epidemiology), energy and climate,
* raise open questions and challenges, especially for the stochastic optimization community.
[01827] Potential Impacts of Mass Nutritional Supplementation on Measles Dynamics
Format : Online Talk on Zoom
Author(s) :
Navideh Noori (Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)
Laura A Skrip (School of Public Health, University of Liberia)
Assaf P Oron (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington)
Kevin A McCarthy (Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)
Joshuna L Proctor (Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)
Guillaume Chabot-Couture (Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)
Benjamin M Althouse (Information School, University of Washington)
Kevin P.Q. Phelan (The Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA))
Indi Trehan (Department of Pediatrics, Global Health, and Epidemiology, University of Washington)
Abstract : The bidirectional interaction between undernutrition and infection can be devastating to child health. Treatment of acute malnutrition can reverse some of its deleterious effects and reduce susceptibility to infection. To understand how integrating nutrition interventions and vaccination affects a vaccine-preventable disease dynamics, we developed a measles transmission model. We show leveraging mass nutritional supplementation as a contact point with the health system to increase measles vaccination coverage has a synergistic benefit beyond either intervention alone.
